What you should expect from August’s inflation data
Tomorrow’s inflation data is likely to show that price growth increased again in the 12 months to August, possibly rising to above 3% as the UK dealt with high fuel and energy prices.
Almost all economists agree that inflation will keep rising for the rest of 2026, as the economic consequences of the Iran war continue to affect the UK.
In particular, rising oil prices have resulted in higher energy and fuel costs. Petrol prices are at their highest level since the conflict began on 28 February, reaching an average of over 169p a litre on 15 September (over 191p a litre for diesel).
Meanwhile, the energy regulator, Ofgem, confirmed energy costs will increase by 4% from October when the latest energy price cap comes into force.
Higher energy and fuel prices are expected to push up the headline rate of inflation in August and beyond, causing it to remain above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
What is inflation?
Inflation is one of the most important economic metrics and allows consumers and the government alike to see how the cost of living is changing.
In simple terms, inflation measures how much the price of goods and services have risen over a set period of time, usually 12 months.
For example, if a leg of lamb cost £10 one year but rose to £11 the next year, we can say the price of a leg of lamb inflated by 10%.
There are multiple ways of measuring inflation, but the main one is the consumer prices index (CPI).
The UK’s target level of inflation is 2%, which economists say is a healthy level of price growth in the economy that stimulates spending and economic growth.
When will August’s inflation data be released?
August’s inflation data will be released at 7am, 16 September.
It will be published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK’s official statistics provider, and will include the latest readings for the consumer prices index (CPI), retail prices index (RPI), and the consumer prices index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH).
Inflation data is released by the ONS every month, covering where prices went in the last full month.
Good afternoon and welcome to MoneyWeek’s live report on August’s inflation figures.
The data will be released on 16 September, so stay with us on this page for rolling commentary on what to expect from the data tomorrow, how it will affect your finances, and the latest breaking news.
