Could Labour scrap the triple lock to fund social care service?

Labour could reportedly scrap the state pension triple lock to help fund a new free social care service if they win another term in power.

Ministers are expected to look at plans to divert money spent on the triple lock to build a new national care service, The Times reports.

The new system would provide social care for the elderly and operate under NHS principles of being universal and free at the point of use, and would be at the heart of Labour’s next general election manifesto.

Prime minister Andy Burnham said he will “grasp the nettle” of reforming social care in an interview on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg on 27 September.

He added: “Parliament [is] just ignoring this issue [reforming social care] because they consider it too difficult […] Somebody needs to grasp the nettle. I will be the one to do that, and I realise it might require me to spend some political capital, that it might make me unpopular with some, but that isn’t going to stop me.”

Burnham accepted that “the challenge on the public finances is real, so it has to be done carefully without putting extra strain on the public purse”, but said that he would set out the vision at his Labour party conference speech on 29 September.

Estimates by the Health Foundation say implementing a social care service that is universal and free at the point of use could cost £18 billion a year. Burnham rejected these estimates, saying they are too high.

When pressed on how the new service would be paid for, Burnham said everyone would contribute as everyone is covered, but added that a future scheme may not necessarily be funded in the same way as the NHS.

Full plans of what the new service could look like, as well as a timeline for implementing it will be presented at Burnham’s party conference speech.

When could Burnham set up a new social care service?

The prime minister said his new social care service would be implemented after the next general election as he seeks a fresh mandate to bring in the new service.

Burnham is currently bound by Keir Starmer’s 2024 manifesto promise not to raise income tax, employee’s national insurance, or VAT. It means raising enough revenue to fund a new commitment like a free care service would be very difficult without breaking the pledge.

Similarly, removing the state pension triple lock and using the money saved to implement a care service would also break the 2024 Labour manifesto which committed to keeping the triple lock in place.

He said: “I don’t think you can reform this system without consensus. So I’m saying to you that I will develop a very clear plan, and I will put that plan to the public at a general election, and that will be where the plan gets tested, and people will then be able to decide.”

What could the triple lock be replaced by?

If the triple lock is reformed to find money for a care service, state pensions would likely still increase in line with economic metrics.

The current triple lock system ensures the state pension increases every year by whatever is highest out of inflation, average earnings, or a flat 2.5%.

This system has delivered above-inflation increases to the state pension in recent years, and experts have warned it is unsustainable in the long term.

Reports in The Times suggest that the triple lock could be replaced with increases in line with average earnings growth instead.

Residential adult social care costs an average of £54,000 a year

Implementing a free and universal social care system could save families hundreds of thousands of pounds on average on residential care.

Residential adult social care costs more than £54,000 a year on average in England, while nursing care costs over £71,000, according to a report by Laing Buisson in 2025.

Meanwhile, new data from investment platform AJ Bell suggests caring for a loved one yourself over 20 years can cost £1 million in lost salary and pension wealth.

Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at AJ Bell, said: “Andy Burnham has laid out his intentions to fight the next election on a platform of free social care at the point of use. It’s a difficult move politically, because it has immediately sparked speculation as to how it would be funded and whether there could be new taxes or some sort of change to the state pension triple lock. It could put tax hikes and speculation at the heart of the next general election.

“However, such a move could dramatically change lives for the millions of people who have someone in their life who needs care.

“When we think about the cost of care, we tend to consider the expense of formal care, which is eye-watering. However, in 2023/24, an estimated 5.4 million people were informal carers, and for them, there’s every chance their responsibilities are costing them dear too.”