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It has been a tumultuous week in Welsh rugby as the WRU gets one-step closer to its three-team solution. Here, we answer some of the key questions fans have been asking
It has been a tumultuous week for Welsh rugby. On Monday night, it emerged that Ospreys owners Y11 Sports & Media are the Welsh Rugby Union’s preferred bidders to buy Cardiff Rugby. A couple of days later, WRU chair Richard Collier-Keywood and chief executive Abi Tierney were called to Westminster to answer questions from the Welsh Affairs Select Committee.
Then came another twist amid confirmation Y11 would not merge the two clubs, with Cardiff remaining an independent side and the Ospreys’ future only guaranteed until the end of the 2026/27 season.
Later on Thursday, Swansea Council issued an explosive statement, claiming the WRU had indicated to them there is “no viable future for the Ospreys” under their plan. As a result, they will not put any money into the redevelopment of St Helen’s and have urged the union to change course.
With uncertainty swirling around the future of Welsh professional rugby, here are the key questions answered.
Does this all mean the Ospreys are doomed?
There appears to be a good chance the Ospreys will cease to exist beyond the summer of 2027 but it is by no means certain.
Just to be clear, no deal has been agreed yet with the WRU entering a period of exclusivity with Ospreys owners Y11 Sports & Media over the sale of Cardiff Rugby.
This means Y11 are the only bidder they will negotiate with and it is clear both parties are keen to get a deal done.
But much can change over the next few weeks and it is not curtains for the Ospreys just yet. There is precedent for big deals like this to fall through at the last minute, with the Ospreys’ merger with the Scarlets in 2019 being the prime example.
The fact the WRU is allowing Y11 to own both Cardiff and Ospreys until the end of the 2026/27 season might give fans of the Swansea-based club hope. The fact they have no clarity after that will dash it almost immediately.
We know WRU chair Richard Collier-Keywood and CEO Abi Tierney are both trying to find a way where they can reduce the number of professional teams in Wales from four to three.
Y11 buying Cardiff and either merging or binning off the Ospreys is undeniably the fastest way they can achieve their aim of going down to three teams.
Perhaps significantly, on Thursday afternoon, following a meeting between Tierney, Ospreys CEO Lance Bradley and Swansea Council chief Rob Stewart, the council issued an explosive statement claiming the WRU had indicated “they saw no viable future for the Ospreys within their new arrangements”. The council has also said it will not put any money into the St Helen’s redevelopment if the Ospreys have no long term future.
The signs do not look good, but Y11 remain silent.
Could there be a merger between Ospreys and Cardiff
In a word, no. While there has been discussions about a merger between the two clubs previously, that is now seemingly not going to happen.
If Y11 succeed in buying Cardiff then they have been given permission to own both the Arms Park outfit and the Ospreys as two separate entities until at least the 2026/27 season. The announcement on Thursday ruled out a merger as the WRU confirmed Cardiff will remain an independent club and brand playing in Cardiff.
The WRU clearly see Cardiff as too valuable a brand to dilute. There are also the views of Cardiff Athletic Club to consider who would not entertain any side playing at the Arms Park who are not called Cardiff and not playing in blue & black.
Y11’s interest in Cardiff seems to be based on a belief that owning a team based in the Welsh capital has a higher commercial ceiling than one based in Swansea.
Things could always change but at this point a merger is not on the table.
Are Y11 allowed to own both the Ospreys and Cardiff?
We’re trying to clear this up fully, but yes, it looks like they can if they have sign off from the WRU, the URC, EPCR and World Rugby.
According to World Rugby’s regulation 14, “no individual, body corporate, partnership, trust or any other entity may directly or indirectly own or control more than one club, except with the prior written consent of the Union concerned, or where Clubs from different Unions are involved, the written consent of the Unions concerned and World Rugby.”
In the URC, the Irish provinces are all owned by the IRFU and the Scottish are owned by the SRU, so multi-club ownership exists but they are governing bodies.
On the other side, it is worth noting that German club Heidelberger RK got banned from participating in the 2017/18 EPCR Challenge Cup because their owner Dr Hans-Peter Wild also owned Stade Francais.
An EPCR statement from the time claimed “he would be in a position to influence or to control the management or performance of two clubs in the same competition, EPCR decided that the German club could not participate.”
Clearly this is slightly different because both clubs are under two separate governing bodies and the WRU are confident in their legal position.
WalesOnline understands the URC has granted the WRU permission to go down this road, while EPCR are unlikely to kick-up a fuss if it has been approved by URC shareholders.
But private owners in charge of two teams competing in the same competition is unheard of in professional rugby and could lead to accusations of a conflict of interest from the other two Welsh clubs.
Assuming the deal is done, when will we actually go down to three teams?
Today’s announcement says the Ospreys will continue to play in the United Rugby Championship and EPCR competitions until at the end of the 2026/27 season at least.
The reality is the WRU cannot go down to three teams until the URC finds a replacement for the axed Welsh side with London Irish, Ealing Trailfinders and Georgian outfit Black Lion potential options.
However, the WRU wants to reach consensus on who the three remaining teams will be in the near future and it is very difficult to see a dead team playing in the URC for a season.
The most likely way of getting to three teams seems to be the Ospreys ceasing to exist but until Y11 come out and say what their intentions are it is difficult to know.
If they intend to continue with the Ospreys and Cardiff long term, which seems unlikely right now, then a “consensus” on three teams seems impossible and a tender process would then start that would take at least six months.
Does this all mean the Scarlets and Dragons are definitely safe?
No, neither club is definitely safe.
What people have got to understand is this is not simply a ploy to get down to three clubs but a power grab by the union.
Under the new 10-year licences that have been offered, the WRU wants complete control of the rugby departments at the three remaining clubs.
This means they will centrally contract all Welsh-qualified players and appoint all coaches. But the problem is they still require the benefactors to put a significant chunk of money into each club.
However, they will have no say over the rugby side of the operation and will instead be in charge of the commercial arm of the business.
This is unacceptable to the current funding directors at both the Dragons and Scarlets who are unlikely to sign up to the licences as things stand.
It could be the WRU see Y11 owning both Cardiff and the Ospreys as the route to complete control. Let’s say Y11 get the deal done and agree for both Cardiff and the Ospreys to sign up to the terms the WRU are offering. That then puts pressure on the Scarlets and Dragons to also sign up on the terms the WRU want, with only three licenses available.
As confirmed by Collier-Keywood at the Welsh Affairs Select Committee at Westminster on Wednesday, the Scarlets are already taking legal action against the governing body.
Amid all the complications and scenarios, the quickest way to get down to three teams is if Y11 succeed in buying Cardiff, the Scarlets and Dragons sign up to the WRU’s terms and the Ospreys disappear as a result.
Could the players go on strike?
The players are not happy whatsoever, with Ospreys training cancelled on Tuesday and some players even walking out of a meeting with CEO Lance Bradley.
Welsh players have set a deadline of February 6 to give clarity on what will happen next season. This is the day before Wales kick-off the Six Nations against England at Allianz Stadium in Twickenham.
“This deadline is essential to prevent further disruption, provide stability and allow players and clubs to make informed decisions,” read a Welsh Rugby Players Association statement.
“Failure to deliver certainty by this point would inevitably require players to consider their position and next steps.”
It is not out of the question the players would consider strike action during the Six Nations if things continue to drag on.
