Djokovic’s path to 25 opens up – but clear obstacles remain

Increasingly, it feels like a case of “now or never” for Novak Djokovic.

The longer time ticks on, the less likely it is that 38-year-old Djokovic will claim the elusive 25th Grand Slam title he so dearly craves.

If he is going to move clear of Australia’s Margaret Court in terms of all-time major victories, the smart money goes on Djokovic doing it at Melbourne Park.

History shows how much he loves the place. Djokovic has lifted a record 10 men’s titles at the Australian Open and, overall, won 102 of his 112 matches on Melbourne’s hard courts.

Given that body of work, his fans are starting to believe the stars are aligning – with several reasons enhancing that belief in recent days.

Firstly, fourth seed Djokovic had a narrow escape when he recklessly cracked a ball close to a ball girl during his third-round win over Botic van de Zandschulp.

Djokovic admitted afterwards he was “lucky”. Had the ball struck the girl, he would almost certainly have been defaulted and seen another attempt at number 25 aborted by his own carelessness.

Secondly, Djokovic was handed a walkover on Sunday following injured opponent Jakub Mensik’s withdrawal from their last-16 match.

For some players, going three days without a match can leave them cold.

Given Djokovic’s advancing years and ability to find his best form without playing regularly, it feels like a bonus heading into Wednesday’s quarter-final.

Feeling fresher by playing a match fewer than future opponents – Lorenzo Musetti in the quarter-finals on Wednesday, then potentially Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner – could be crucial.

Thirdly, Djokovic knows his aura – as well as his game – has overawed Musetti in the past, ensuring he remains the favourite to reach the last four.

Italian fifth seed Musetti has lost nine of his 10 matches against Djokovic, admitting he has not been “clinical or cold enough” in the past.

While there are positive signs, it is obvious some conundrums remain the same for Djokovic.

Whether his ageing body can hold up at the business end of a Grand Slam – even with the benefit of being gifted a round off – remains to be seen.

And the pertinent question has not gone away: will Djokovic have enough in the tank to potentially beat Alcaraz and Sinner back-to-back?

Alcaraz and Sinner have won the past eight Grand Slams between them, a run going back to Djokovic’s victory at the 2023 US Open, and both remain in the men’s draw.

Djokovic is not delusional. He knows 22-year-old Alcaraz and 24-year-old Sinner are a cut above the rest, but retains belief he can oust them.

Last year, Djokovic reached the semi-finals of all four majors – a remarkable feat which showed he remains that duo’s nearest challenger based on ability.

The physical durability needed to land his 25th major was missing.

Djokovic beat Alcaraz in the Australian Open quarter-finals, but the effort expended in fighting through a hamstring injury ruined his chances of challenging Alexander Zverev.

Suffering a leg injury in the French Open semi-final against Sinner harmed his chances, then he considered retiring from their Wimbledon semi-final because of a groin problem.

Djokovic also ran out of gas during his US Open semi-final against Alcaraz.

“On [any] given day when I’m feeling good physically and mentally, when I’m playing well, I can challenge anybody, and I still believe I can beat all of them,” said the Serb.

“If that’s not the case, I wouldn’t be here.”

Djokovic has attempted to release pressure – internally and externally – by claiming he does not see this latest Melbourne tilt as “make or break” for his chances of surpassing Court.

Some believe Djokovic will not win another major again if he does not lift the Australian Open title on Sunday.

That still feels a foolish prediction, especially given his nous and experience on the Wimbledon grass.

By that point, though, he will be into his 40th year. He turns 39 in May.

But would you dare rule Djokovic – a man who has made a career of achieving the seemingly unachievable – out of anything?

Absolutely not. And especially not in Melbourne.