Have European stocks turned a corner?

Investors were feeling deeply bearish about European stocks earlier this year, with warnings that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would unleash the continent’s second energy crisis in a decade. That danger has not passed, but markets got carried away. Unusually strong second-quarter earnings have allayed fears of stagflation. The Stoxx Europe 600, a pan-European stock index that includes UK-listed shares, is up 13% since its low in March.

German earnings on the DAX index rose 11% year on year, the best showing “in at least ten quarters”, according to Deutsche Bank analysts. The country’s carmakers remain in poor health, but that was more than offset by a superb showing from industrial and chemical firms. The wider Stoxx 600 did even better, recording year-on-year earnings growth of 23%.

European stocks have turned in their “best earnings season in nearly four years”, say Sagarika Jaisinghani and Alice Atkins on Bloomberg. Miners and industrials are booming. The continent’s small technology sector is outperforming the US giants, led by Dutch chip specialist ASML, whose shares have risen 57% this year. Foreign investors are piling in, with European stocks attracting the second-strongest inflows in a decade so far this year. Given the challenging backdrop, the “resilience” of the continent’s corporations is deeply reassuring.

European stock markets have long been overshadowed by Wall Street and some of the racier Asian markets, says Joseph Wilkins on CNBC. Goldman Sachs analysts argue that many of the things investors think they know about Europe are “myths”. Chinese competition, for example, isn’t an existential challenge, because carmakers represent just 1% of the continent’s market capitalisation. “Since 2022, European banks have considerably outperformed the Magnificent Seven.” And with anxiety growing about AI exposure, the old continent offers an obvious “hedge”.

Eurosclerosis continues for European stocks

US equity valuations are “on the nuttier side of bonkers”, but that doesn’t necessarily make European stocks good value, says Stuart Kirk in the Financial Times. The Euro Stoxx 50 index of eurozone blue-chips has managed a fairly boring annualised return of 11.1% over the past decade. True, ASML is a “world-class firm”, but the performance of the continent’s other industrials and banks is underwhelming when compared with US peers. “Europe’s 25% price/earnings discount to US shares is not deep enough.”

European growth remains sclerotic, says James Carter for National Review. The EU’s GDP per capita is just half that of the US, down from 76.5% in 2008. Contrary to popular belief, Europeans work just as much as Americans; indeed, employed Europeans average longer working weeks than their US counterparts. The real issue is sluggish productivity growth.

The danger of an energy shock has not gone away either. European natural gas prices have been trading above €60/MWh, levels not seen since the tail end of the 2022-2023 energy crisis. The continent’s gas storage is the lowest it has been for this time of year since at least 2009.

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