Is a Panenka ever the right choice for a penalty?

In a controversy-filled Africa Cup of Nations final, Brahim Diaz’s attempt to bring some calm only added to the chaos.

Around 17 minutes passed between Morocco being awarded a penalty, deep into stoppage time, and Diaz beginning his run-up.

The Real Madrid forward slowed as he approached the ball and dinked the ball down the middle but goalkeeper Edouard Mendy didn’t move, comfortably caught it and the game went to extra time with Senegal emerging victorious.

A horrible moment for Diaz, who looked distraught as he was handed the Golden Boot as the tournament’s top scorer by Fifa president Gianni Infantino at the end of the game.

It is not the first time a Panenka has gone wrong in recent weeks with Sunderland’s Enzo le Fee seeing a similar effort easily saved by Caoimhin Kelleher in a Premier League loss at Brentford earlier in January.

But while such efforts look awful when they don’t go in, is a chip down the middle really the worst choice for a penalty taker to opt for?

The Panenka takes its name from Antonin Panenka, who famously chipped his penalty down the middle to win the 1976 European Championship for Czechoslovakia.

The game against reigning champions West Germany had ended 2-2 after extra time in Yugoslavia, with a penalty shootout to decide the winner.

When Uli Hoeness smashed his spot-kick over the bar, Czech midfielder Panenka had the chance to win for the underdogs.

After a quick run-up, Panenka floated a delicate chip down the middle to befuddle goalkeeper Sepp Maier and win the trophy for Czechoslovakia.

It was not the first time Panenka had attempted such a penalty. In fact, he had scored for his club side Bohemians against local rival Dukla Prague in the same manner just a month earlier.

However, his Euros-winning effort brought the technique to a wider audience and the Panenka was born.

In the 50 years since Panenka brought the dinked penalty to prominence, it has gradually become more common.

A number of top players, including Lionel Messi, Thierry Henry and Francesco Totti, have successfully used the technique from the spot.

France legend Zinedine Zidane has a claim for taking the most high-pressure Panenka, in the 2006 World Cup final with his penalty hitting the underside of the crossbar and just crossing the line.

It’s probably not what he is most remembered for that night, though.

England have suffered at the hands of the Panenka a couple of times in shootouts, most famously when Italy midfielder Andrea Pirlo nonchalantly beat Joe Hart to change the momentum of the shootout in the Euro 2012 quarter-final.

“For me, Hart seemed to be very confident in himself,” Pirlo said. “I needed to do something to beat him.

“Penalties are a very personal thing but, when I saw him move, I decided to do that. It seemed to be a psychological blow for us.”

Similarly in the 2022 EFL Cup final, with Chelsea keeper Kepa Arrizabalaga making a show of trying to distract the Liverpool players, Fabinho responded by calmly dinking his kick down the middle, much to the delight of the Reds fans behind the goal.

A psychological blow? Well, every Liverpool player proceeded to score as they won 11-10 on penalties.

But for all the notable successes, Diaz is not the first high-profile miss.

In 1992, Gary Lineker had the chance to match Sir Bobby Charlton’s 49 goals for England in a friendly against Brazil but fluffed his attempted Panenka and ended up one shy of the then-record.

Manchester City striker Sergio Aguero was usually pretty reliable from the spot but was made to look foolish when he attempted a Panenka in May 2021 as Chelsea went on to win 2-1 after the penalty save from… Edouard Mendy.

There is no doubt that if a player misses a Panenka, the criticism seems to be more severe than if a tame effort towards the corner was saved.

“You will get people moaning because they see it as something different,” former Bristol City and Swansea striker Lee Trundle told BBC Sport.

Trundle, who was known for attempting eye-catching flicks and tricks, took penalties throughout his career and although he never took a Panenka as a pro, he did so successful playing semi-professionally.

“My thinking of it is that it’s just another way to score a penalty,” he said.

“If you put it left or right and the keeper dives and guesses the right way and he saves it, that’s the same if you do a Panenka and he stays in the middle and saves it.

“If it goes in then everyone says how brilliant it is.”

The stats suggest that going down the middle might actually be the way to go, whether that is going for a Panenka or with power, with 84% of such spot-kicks at the World Cup (since 1966) and the Euros (since 1980) finding the net.

That’s compared to 78% going left and only 74% going right.

That trend continued at this year’s Afcon with six of eight penalties down the middle finding their mark for 75%, markedly up on the 12 of 18 (67%) shooting left and 11 of 16 (69%) shooting right.

So what is the thought process behind opting for a Panenka? Is it an instinctive decision or something that will have been planned ahead of time?

“When I’ve done it, it’s been about how the game is going,” Trundle added.

“You could be playing really well and have that confidence. I think later on in the game as well, I think that’s where it’s better because the keeper will usually dive.

“If it’s 1-1 and there’s five minutes to go, the chances are, he’s not going to stand in the middle and just let the ball go in one of the corners.”

That might explain Diaz’s thinking as he assumed that Mendy would feel he had to dive.

In this instance, though, Mendy clearly spotted something in Diaz’s run-up and stayed where he was.

That is perhaps why there is such added frustration after a missed Panenka because while a player might inadvertently telegraph where he is aiming, if they put the ball in the corner, the goalkeeper still might not get to it.

There is no such leeway if you give away that you’re going down the middle.

“He’s probably changed his mind many a time in that situation,” Trundle said of the long delay before Diaz took his penalty.

“If you’re in the game and you get a penalty, even if it’s a couple of minutes, it gets in your head.

“In those little stages, you’ll see defenders coming up and talking to the penalty taker, the keeper coming out.

“The more time for a penalty to be taken, the more I think it goes in the keeper’s favour.”

The biggest mistake a penalty taker can make is to change their mind in their run-up, says Trundle, but while missing a Panenka might lead to heavy criticism, having it as an option should only benefit the attacker.

“If you spin it around again, it adds another pressure to the keeper because instead of left or right, now you’ve got left, right or down the middle,” he said.

“It should still be in the player’s favour.”

Not that it will be of much comfort to Diaz right now.