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Tandy has made six changes to his side ahead of facing the world champions South Africa in Durban
Steve Tandy has made six changes to his side ahead of the toughest assignment in world rugby, with the Springboks in Durban up next for Wales.
Perhaps the most significantchange comes at inside centre, where Ben Thomas replaces Joe Hawkins. The decision inevitably reignites the debate over Wales’ continued preference for a second playmaker at 12 rather than a more direct ball-carrier capable of consistently getting over the gainline.
Against the world’s best, there are legitimate questions over whether that approach offers enough physicality and momentum in midfield.
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Thomas is an accomplished footballer, but the question is whether his strengths are enough at Test level, where collisions are often decisive. There remain doubts over whether the Cardiff centre has the physicality to impose himself and consistently win the gainline battle.
Max Llewellyn also makes his first appearance since last November replacing Eddie James at 13. At 6ft 6in, Llewellyn has the size to make an impact at this level but he must get Wales over the gainline in midfield.
The Springboks centre partnership of Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel is the best in the world and they have the potential to run riot in Durban.
Looking ahead, Tandy may need to reconsider his options at inside centre.
A more direct ball-carrier, such as James or Bryn Bradley, could provide the gainline presence Wales currently lack.
There is too little penetration in the backline, and at Test level that blunts everything else. Before a side can exploit width, it first has to earn it. Wales must go forward before they can go wide. It is very difficult to see where the go-forward is in this side.
Another significant selection call comes at fly-half, where Sam Costelow has paid the price for failing to seize his opportunity in San Juan, with Dan Edwards returning straight to the starting XV.
The Ospreys playmaker offers a different profile: a more instinctive No 10 who plays with his head up, attacks the space in front of him and carries a genuine running threat.
His willingness to challenge the defensive line gives Wales a sharper attacking edge, but there are caveats.
Opponents will look to test him defensively, while his kicking game must be accurate if Wales are to compete for territory and relieve pressure against the world’s best. This is a big game for Edwards.
Louis Rees-Zammit comes straight back into the side and immediately gives Wales a greater cutting edge out wide. Few players possess his pace or ability to turn half-chances into tries, adding a genuine counter-attacking threat to the back three.
There are, however, potential vulnerabilities.
The Springboks are almost certain to target Blair Murray’s relative lack of height under the high ball, while Wales will miss the aerial prowess Ellis Mee brought to the backfield against Argentina.
Wales’ pack face a huge challenge against one of the most formidable forward units in world rugby, with South Africa’s power and physicality at the set piece set to provide the ultimate examination.
It is a significant boost that Dewi Lake has proved his fitness. The Gloucester-bound hooker has been outstanding in recent times, bringing aggression, leadership and dynamism to Wales’ forward play.
His ability to carry, make an impact in defence and generate momentum will be crucial against a Springbok pack built around relentless pressure.
Rhys Carré will also need to deliver another major performance. The loosehead is an explosive carrier who can provide Wales with much-needed go-forward ball, but his scrummaging will be severely tested by Bordeaux-Bègles tighthead Carlu Sadie who is a destructive scrummager.
Dillon Lewis has been one of the positives of Wales’ summer since forcing his way back into the international picture The Dragons tighthead impressed against Fiji and Argentina, scrummaging strongly while offering plenty of work around the field.
But the Springboks’ scrum remains the benchmark in Test rugby, and Wales’ ability to compete in this contest will depend heavily on Lewis’ capacity to withstand the pressure and provide a stable platform.
The absence of Ben Carter could prove costly for Wales. The Dragons lock has been outstanding in recent months, providing the kind of relentless work rate and selfless effort that often goes unnoticed but is invaluable at Test level.
Teddy Williams comes into the starting XV, and the Cardiff lock offers greater athleticism and mobility. However, he faces a significant examination against a powerful Springboks pack that will look to impose its physicality from the outset.
There will once again be a significant burden on Aaron Wainwright to provide Wales with much-needed go-forward ball, while Jac Morgan’s role will be crucial in slowing the speed of South Africa’s ruck ball and disrupting their momentum at the breakdown.
Wales will also need a meaningful impact from the bench, with Tandy able to call upon Gloucester lock Freddie Thomas and Leicester Tigers openside Tommy Reffell; two players capable of making an impact when the game enters its final stages.
Tandy’s decision to go for a 6-2 split on the bench is also an indicator of just how much facing the Springboks can take out of a side physically.
Given the quality and physicality of the opposition, it is difficult to see where Wales can gain a foothold in this contest. They will need to be disciplined, courageous and clinical if they are to stay in touch with a Springboks side that excels at suffocating teams.
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