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What happens next will define the future of professional rugby in Wales
19:00, 27 Jan 2026
When the Welsh Rugby Union signalled its intention to cut the number of professional teams from four to three, it was always going to be a bruising process. Structural reform of this scale rarely unfolds quietly, and Welsh rugby — emotionally invested, financially fragile and politically complex — was never likely to defy that rule.
What has followed instead is a prolonged period of uncertainty, punctuated by flashes of anger and mistrust.
That tension came to a head last week when, after months of speculation, the WRU confirmed that Y11 Sports & Media — the owners of the Ospreys — had been selected as the preferred bidders for Cardiff Rugby, triggering a 90-day exclusivity period.
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If the deal is completed, Y11 will own both Cardiff and the Ospreys until at least the end of the 2026-27 season. Supporters are not naïve.
They understand that while Cardiff’s future may now look more secure, the Ospreys’ long-term survival remains deeply uncertain.
So what happens next?
In truth, the road ahead remains opaque. The WRU is currently negotiating licences with its professional clubs — one for Cardiff, one for the east and one for the west — as it seeks to reshape the professional game under a far more centralised model.
While the licensing arrangements are complex, the direction of travel is clear. The WRU wants near-total control over rugby operations at the remaining three teams.
That would include centrally contracting Welsh-qualified players and staff, alongside the reintroduction of a national academy system.
The fundamental problem is this: the WRU still requires private benefactors to inject substantial sums of money into these teams, while asking them to confine themselves largely to the commercial side of the business.
Existing funding directors are unlikely to accept that degree of control, and negotiations are ongoing at Professional Rugby Board level.
If an agreement is to be reached, compromise will be unavoidable.
There are senior figures within the professional game who are not inherently opposed to a stronger WRU hand, or even to the idea of a national academy. What they will not accept is the current proposal in its entirety. Collaboration, yes; surrendering independence, no.
WRU chair Richard Collier-Keywood has spoken recently of excessive “friction” in previous agreements. But if he is serious about securing a deal, he will need to find common ground with private investors.
An extraordinary general meeting is widely expected after the Six Nations, with a potential vote of no confidence in Collier-Keywood a very real possibility.
Time, therefore, is not on the WRU’s side.
Complicating matters further is the future of Wales’ participation in the United Rugby Championship. Only last week, players were informed that four professional teams would compete next season.
The WRU is acutely aware of the risk of significant financial penalties should it reduce to three teams without securing a replacement.
While Wales is contractually obliged to provide four sides only until the end of the 2026-27 season, the URC has options. Georgian outfit Black Lion and South Africa’s Cheetahs — in which Y11 holds an equity stake — have both been mentioned.
However, sources suggest the league’s preference would be for an English side, with London Irish or Ealing Trailfinders the leading candidates.
That prospect comes with formidable obstacles, not least securing RFU approval, but it has not been abandoned.
If, as expected, the Ospreys fail to secure the west licence, they could find themselves playing one final season in the URC knowing their professional status is likely to end in 2027-28.
That raises serious questions around player contracts. Would elite players be transferred to Cardiff under common ownership? Would they become free agents, able to move elsewhere in Wales or abroad? These are issues that demand careful and transparent resolution.
The WRU is also facing potential litigation from the Scarlets, a dispute that could prove damaging both financially and reputationally. A settlement out of court should not be ruled out.
Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounds the proposed redevelopment of St Helen’s. Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart has made it clear that the £5m investment will only be released if the WRU guarantees the Ospreys’ professional status beyond 2026-27 — a guarantee the governing body is currently unable to provide.
Once Y11’s takeover of Cardiff is concluded, the picture should begin to sharpen. With an EGM expected soon after the Six Nations, events are likely to accelerate quickly.
What remains clear is that Welsh rugby stands at a crossroads. Decisions taken in the coming weeks will shape the professional game for a generation — and there is precious little margin for error.
