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The Welsh Rugby Union has confirmed Cardiff and the Dragons are in line to secure two of the three licences in Welsh rugby’s proposed new regional structure, leaving the Ospreys and Scarlets in a straight shootout for the final remaining place.
This means that one of the Ospreys or Scarlets will cease to exist at the conclusion of the 2027/28 season, unless they agree to merge.
The WRU board has agreed a timeline to determine the licensing framework and the licence award process which will begin in December 2026 and conclude by the end of the 2026/27 season.
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All four clubs are currently signed up to PRA25 which expires in 2028, which is when the WRU will reduce the size of the professional game to three teams.
This period of stability will now be used to determine the funding model and licence framework with the current professional clubs involved in creating the framework.
Following on from the autumn Nations Championship matches, the WRU will bring together the leadership of all the professional teams, and other stakeholders, to co-create the future operating model for the men’s game.
The aim of the collaborative work will be to create a shared understanding of the financial and strategic realities facing the game, engage stakeholders in a consensual structured way to shape the licensing terms of the future operating model and to determine the interest of each existing professional club in taking up the new 2028 licence agreements
That process will run throughout the first quarter of 2027, at which point all current professional clubs will be given an opportunity to confirm whether they wish to participate in the future operating model.
What is not certain is how the WRU plans to move forward if either the Ospreys or Scarlets don’t agree to a merger.
It has mentioned putting the licences out to tender but they have also been wary of further legal challenges.
The union has already weathered an arbitration challenge from the Scarlets, as well as a significant legal battle with Swansea Council over Y11’s proposed acquisition of Cardiff – a deal that could have triggered a major restructuring of Welsh rugby, with the Ospreys potentially moving into a semi-professional Super Rygbi Cymru setup.
Ultimately, Y11’s bid to purchase Cardiff did not proceed but a fierce battle for survival will now take place in west Wales.
“We have affirmed that the future operating model will involve three professional teams from start of the 2028/29 season and now have a firm timeline for our next steps,” said WRU vice-chair John Manders.
“We have already begun to put the support structures in place to develop the related player pathways, to create the best environments for our senior players, to provide the right financial support and to develop the facilities around them.
“We are making important progress which will safeguard the future of our game, concentrate resources and give our teams the best chance of achieving success at all levels.”
The Scarlets and Ospreys came close to a merger back in 2019 only for the deal to fall through at the last minute after heads of terms had been signed.
A merger between the two arch-rivals could come back on the table or the west licence could be put out to tender.
“There is now a duty on all of us involved in the professional game in Wales to work together to determine a shared future operating model,” said Professional Rugby Board chair Marianne Okland.
“How we progress over the forthcoming months will be critical. The aim is to finalise the new licensing model as quickly as possible and then move quickly to confirm future licence arrangements and transition plans.
“This will allow an orderly implementation and avoid prolonged uncertainty for clubs, players, supporters, investors and sponsors.
“Assuming that Cardiff Rugby and Dragons RFC want to sign up to the proposed licensing terms, there is now certainty that they will be offered the capital and east licences respectively.
“We understand that there will be ongoing uncertainty until a final decision on the west licence is made.
“That is why we are committed to progressing in a collaborative way, whilst not underestimating the considerable challenges ahead, and providing stability for all at the earliest opportunity.”
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