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UK export activity in the Middle East has dropped 20% following the Iran war.
Total UK certificates for Arab markets fell by 20%, from 15,437 in March 2025 to 12,360 in March 2026, compared to certificates for non‑Arab markets declining by 4%, from 24,751 in March 2025 to 23,785 in March 2026.
The fall in certificates indicates goods are either being delayed, rerouted or not shipped at all, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said.
“For months, businesses have been telling us that the world is getting harder to trade in, and the data is now catching up with that reality. Routes are less reliable, costs are rising, and geopolitical risk issomething firms are having to manage day‑to‑day.
“Our documentation data shows a clear and immediate shock to UK trade flows linked directly to disruption across the Middle East. The fact that exports tied to Arab markets are falling far faster than elsewhere tells us this is a targeted, region‑specific impact, not a broad‑based downturn.
“Firms are reporting increased delays, rerouting via longer and more expensive pathways, enduring rising insurance premiums and facing stretched lead times. For SMEs in particular, this squeezes cashflow and confidence at a time when exporting is already challenging.
“There are early signs some trade may be delayed rather than permanently lost, but the operating environment has fundamentally changed. Trade must be treated as national infrastructure, exposed directly to geopolitical events, and resilience is now essential, not optional.”
The Institute of Directors’ latest index showed business leaders’ optimism over prospects for the UK economy fell to its lowest ever reading in March.
When asked business leaders about their greatest economic security concerns, 71% were concerned about geopolitical tensions affecting investment, markets or business partners.
On the conflict in the Middle East, 59% said it had had a negative impact on their organisation.
