Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher available, and one New York Mets analyst has moved from interest to prediction. Connor Rogers, co-host of SNY’s “The Mets Pod,” said on a recent episode that the two-time AL Cy Young winner will sign with New York.
Rogers framed the market as narrower than the daily rumor cycle suggests. In the podcast, he said,
“Tarik Skubal’s obviously the cream of the crop, right? But I think there is a level of, there’s only a couple teams that can really be bidding for him. You know, we talk about the Phillies, we talk about the Dodgers, we talk about the Mets, the Yankees, the Red Sox.”
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The clubs willing to write a deal past $400 million are fewer than the clubs that can afford one, especially with the collective bargaining agreement expiring on Dec. 1.
“I don’t think many of those teams are really gonna be bidding for Tarik Skubal. So we’ve heard multiple reports that they’re gonna match any top offer for the guy. I think the Mets are pretty committed to the situation at hand. I do think Skubal will be a Met,” Connor Rogers said.
MLB insider Chelsea Janes wrote that the consensus inside the Mets and among those who deal regularly with David Stearns’ front office is that if Steve Cohen wants Tarik Skubal, New York will pay whatever it takes. The unknown is whether Skubal wants the scrutiny.
The need is obvious. The NY Mets went 74-88 and finished last in the NL East, and their rotation ranked 23rd in the majors with a 4.47 ERA, per Fox Sports. Nolan McLean (3.16 ERA, 194 strikeouts in 31 starts) is a keeper. Skubal would slot above him.
Dodgers’ Andrew Friedman Shares Candid Take on Tarik Skubal’s Uncertain Future in LA
Los Angeles Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman addressed Tarik Skubal’s future at the Dodgers’ end-of-season news conference on Oct. 21. He praised how he handled a trade in the middle of the season and has performed so far.
“I can’t say enough good things about the impact he made in such a short period of time. We have a tremendous amount of respect for him on and off the field and for us, he’s put himself in this position to go out and be a free agent,” Andrew Friedman said.
“… He and his family get to make a choice over where they want to spend the next X number of years and, obviously, we wish them nothing but the best.”
It reads as a tribute and a handoff. Friedman said the Dodgers would “continue to talk to Scott,” Boras, while placing the decision with Skubal and his family, and he described the front office as “still wrapping our arms around our offseason plan and strategy and timing of things.”
The performance argument is plain. Tarik Skubal went 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 62 innings over 10 starts for Los Angeles, then posted a 2.45 ERA in two postseason starts. Blake Snell has said he will recruit him.
Money is the obstacle. Projections run from $400 million to nearly $500 million, past Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million guarantee, the record for a pitcher. The Dodgers project to a 2027 luxury-tax payroll of $388.4 million, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts figures cited by the New York Post.
The Athletic’s Katie Woo, on 97.1 The Fan, said she cannot see Friedman accepting a 10-year, $400 million deal unless Skubal takes a shorter, high-average-value structure with opt-outs, like Kyle Tucker’s four-year, $240 million contract.
Tarik Skubal has offered no hints. “I’m not going to comment on my future really at all. Today sucks, you know, and that’s kind of where my head’s at,” he said after the NLCS ended. Boras reportedly wants a deal before the CBA expires.
If that timeline holds, Rogers’ forecast gets tested within weeks. At minimum, the Mets look like the team most willing to push the bidding past where the Dodgers have gone.
Edited by Kaushani Chatterjee
